How can a highly accurate COVID test be wrong half of the time?

The developing confusion of overly-informed people What’s the problem? Considering base rates. Visualizing the issue Closing The developing confusion of overly-informed people Science is often mistakenly touted as an undeniable collection of facts. But the availability of information about COVID-19 has introduced people to the inevitable uncertainty of scientific discovery. Those not familiar with the process have begun to use this feature as a reason to doubt science as a whole, but complex issues like a pandemic are full of complicated layers that scientists have to navigate and re-evaluate.

Modeling Diagnostic Expectations

The biggest appeal of behavioral economics is its promise of practically regularizing the rational expectations imposed by traditional economics. Since the 70s psychology has catalogued increasing amounts of biases and circumstancial heterogeneities that go against the expectation of rationality in decision making. However, in my short years studying it, it seems like these discoveries are seldom applied to complex real-life economic environments (Nudge being a good example of this). That’s what attracted me to ‘A Crisis of Beliefs’, a book by Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer that was published last year.

Secret Santa Generator Shiny App

Why are you doing this? There are enough secret santa services So, how does it work? Shiny implementation Closing Why are you doing this? There are enough secret santa services Last Christmas my wife was left giftless on my side of the family due to a faulty secret santa generator. In trying to earn brownie points the arrogant nerd in me thought he could do better, so I decided to program one in R (I’d rather know exactly what’s going on in the background anyways).